VIII Report on Real Estate Finance 2015

Starting last year, the real estate sector began to show signs of improvement. After a crisis lasting more than seven years, which has led to a downsizing of investment in construction of more than 30% and a decrease in sales transactions that even exceeded 50%, the downward trend seems to have finally ended, as evidenced by some leading indicators of the real estate cycle. These signals are not completely univocal, however they suggest that the recession has been overcome and that the path toward slow and gradual recovery has been taken.

The exogenous context remains the main element conditioning the trends of the industry, and therefore it is not surprising that renewed interest in real estate has coincided with the elimination of financial tensions and a modest economic recovery. These factors have had an impact on the demand side, stimulating pent-up needs and diversification requirements, as well as on the supply of support instruments, whose rigidity had contributed to intensifying the effects of the recession. Certainly the credit component plays the fundamental role as a market facilitator, compensating for earnings deficits and still partial price adjustments.

Since 2010 on an annual basis for this Report, Nomisma has conducted a Survey of Italian families on issues regarding savings, indebtedness related to the purchase of homes and intention to invest. Coinciding with the macroeconomic indicators, for the first time the survey reveals real-- albeit weak-- indications of recovery in the hard data. The survey reveals some elements of an ongoing structural change taking place in relation to the requirements and needs of households as well as their economic conditions.

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