Although Iran is currently not among the main countries of destination of Italian food, ending sanctions could open up an interesting market for Italian products.

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Milan Expo, Pavilion of Civil Society - Emanuele Di Faustino, Nomisma’s economist, participates in the workshop " Cultivation and culture of rice " speaking about the promotion of Italian rice in foreign markets.

Programme

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Beaune, France, Congress Palace, at 14.00. - Denis Pantini, Project Leader of Wine Monitor, is speaking at the conference organised by Credit Agricole "How to export successfully? Examples and testimonials of successful strategies" with a speech entitled "The Italian wine industry: organisation and exports performance".

Invitation

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I primi dati Wine Monitor sull’import mondiale di vino a metà 2014 evidenziano rallentamenti rispetto ai tassi di crescita degli anni precedenti. Tra i principali mercati, Germania, Cina, e Canada accusano cali anche significativi, sia nei valori che nei volumi dei vini importati. L’Italia cerca di mantenere le posizioni, anche perché sul fronte interno i consumi continuano inesorabilmente a calare.

Alla metà del 2014, i primi dati Wine Monitor sulle importazioni mondiali di vino evidenziano un rallentamento rispetto allo stesso periodo dell’anno precedente. L’analisi svolta sui top 20 mercati per import di vino – i cui acquisti pesano per circa l’85% del totale mondiale – evidenzia un cambio di passo rispetto alle dinamiche di crescita che hanno caratterizzato gli anni passati. Anche se è troppo presto per fare considerazioni sull’intero anno, le stime relative alla prima metà del 2014 mostrano un calo nei valori complessivi di vini importati del 3,9% (misurati in euro) a fronte di una stabilità dei volumi (-0,1%). Vale però la pena ricordare che nel 2013 le quantità di vino commercializzate a livello mondiale sono state le più basse dell’ultimo triennio e che i tassi di crescita al I semestre di ogni anno in questo arco di tempo sono passati dal +8,5% del 2011 al +0,4% del 2013. Insomma, una sorta di rallentamento che dopo le corse all’import degli anni passati sembra quasi fisiologico.
Guardando alle singole tipologie“ spiega Denis Pantini, Direttore dell’Area Agroalimentare di Nomisma e Project leader di Wine Monitor “i cali più rilevanti in questo primo semestre riguardano i vini sfusi e i fermi imbottigliati, mentre per gli spumanti e frizzanti la crescita non sembra essersi fermata”.
Ovviamente non si tratta di una tendenza generalizzata. I cali principali riguardano la Cina (-15% nei valori di import in euro), il Canada (-12%), la Svizzera (-9%) e la Germania (-8%). Per quanto riguarda gli Stati Uniti la variazione è ridotta, mentre Giappone, Norvegia e Brasile all’opposto mettono a segno crescite anche a doppia cifra. 
Anche se questa diversità di direzione che sembra riguardare i singoli mercati non permette di tracciare un’interpretazione univoca del fenomeno, appare comunque evidente come dopo svariati anni di crescita delle importazioni, gli stessi mercati sembrino oggi tirare il fiato. Una “riflessione” che interessa in parte anche i vini italiani. 
In particolare” continua PantiniGermania (-10% in valore) e Canada (-12%) segnano una riduzione delle importazioni di vino italiano, mentre tiene sostanzialmente l’import degli Stati Uniti. Sul fronte opposto, Regno Unito (+9%) e Giappone (+12%). Cresce inoltre il valore dell’import di vino italiano in Scandinavia, soprattutto in Norvegia (+15%) grazie alle ottime performance di spumanti e vini in bag in box”.
La tenuta delle posizioni dei vini italiani nei principali mercati mondiali è fondamentale per la sostenibilità dell’intera filiera vitivinicola nazionale, soprattutto alla luce dei continui cali che si registrano nei consumi di vino sul mercato interno. 
Un approfondimento realizzato da Wine Monitor sui bilanci delle imprese vinicole italiane degli ultimi cinque anni ha infatti messo in luce come la redditività del settore (misurata in termini di ROI) sia fortemente correlata alle esportazioni. Nel corso del quinquennio considerato, il ROI delle imprese è risultato in sensibile calo nel 2009, anno di avvio della crisi e di riduzione dell’export di vino italiano, mentre ha mostrato dinamiche di crescita negli anni successivi, in un contesto di sviluppo delle esportazioni a fronte di un calo dei consumi a livello nazionale. Ad ulteriore testimonianza di tale legame, si pensi che tale indice assume valori più elevati all’aumentare della dimensione delle imprese (in termini di vendite) e diventa di segno negativo nelle aziende con fatturato inferiore ai 2 milioni di euro, per le quali i mercati esteri risultano generalmente più difficili da raggiungere.

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Ufficio Stampa Wine Monitor Nomisma
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Published in Comunicati Stampa
Friday, 11 July 2014 00:00

11 July 2014 - Dust and altar

Sergio De Nardis, Capo Economista 
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Italian firms that are not very competitive or hyper-competitive: it seems that there is no middle ground in such judgments. In reality, these generalisations are all wrong, because the world of businesses is highly heterogeneous: there are firms that are more and less competitive. It is up to international competition to sort out the best. This is what happened in Italy before the beginning of the crisis: this was seen in the acceleration in the productivity of manufacturing after the decline at the beginning of the decade. Over the last two years, this reality--capable of reaction--was hit by the collapse of domestic demand and the credit crunch, with destructive effects outweighing creative forces. In order to limit the damage to industrial capacity caused by the latest recession, it is essential that a recovery worthy of that name takes off as soon as possible.

Firms in the dust or on the altar? How often does one hear diametrically opposed assessments of Italian manufacturing firms? There are those who describe them as not very productive, not innovative, and penalised by their small size, causing the national economic decline; whereas there are also those who emphasise the ability to export, the quality of products, the competitive strengths that make these companies the spearhead of an economy that is struggling on all other fronts. How is it possible to have such sharp divergences of opinion?

The first reason stems from difficulties in interpreting data that, upon superficial examination, would lead to a judgment of an incapacity for structural change in our industry, which apparently always remains same. Actually, Italian manufacturing has undergone a major adjustment during the early years of last decade in response to the competitive shocks of the period (euro and China above all). These affected all European economies, but they have had specific effects on our system because of its specialisation (more exposed to Chinese products) and the frequent use of devaluation, in the past, as a tool for competitive rebalancing (no longer feasible with the single currency). There were significant reorganisations of production, but it has taken a long time to recognise their scale. This is due to problems with statistics, which for some time have underestimated the actual dynamics of exports (and therefore of  output and productivity of manufacturing), and the apparent inertia, mistaken for a lack of reactivity, of the industrial structure in terms of sector and size.

This stillness has been deceptive. In fact, underlying it were major changes, which have given rise to an industrial restructuring that has long been misunderstood. That which has occurred during the years of the great competitive shocks was a reallocation of resources within sectors, from less productive firms to more efficient ones, and within firms, from product lines that were less competitive to those with a higher qualitative content. This shift has not affected the sectors: despite the blows of displacement caused by Chinese competition, there has not been a disappearance of traditional made-in-Italy products and at the same time there has not been a rise in high-tech sectors. Certainly, something has changed. The matrix of the Italian supply has changed, the traditional productions have been reduced  and those involving capital and intermediates goods have been strengthened. But the sectoral hierarchy of comparative advantages in exports compared to the European partners has remained essentially unchanged.

Rather, the movement of resources has been seen within industries both in those where Italy has a  comparative advantages and in those where it has a comparative  disadvantage: everywhere the pressures of competition have activated selection processes within each sector, leading to the expansion of the best producers (companies and product lines within companies) and the decline of the unfitted. This resulted in a substantial acceleration of productivity in manufacturing, which began growing again -- following the downturn of 2000-2003 and prior to the crisis -- at a rate (2% per year between 2003 and 2007) similar to the one of the 1990s (Table 1)[1].

Table 1 –Total factor productivity in the manufacturing industry ( % change, annual averages)
20140711-SCN-Tabella1-EN
Source: Nomisma elaborations based on data from ISTAT

Based on these considerations, a second reason for the divergence of opinions on industry becomes evident: any generalisation, whether negative or positive, leads to a partial, if not fallacious view. In nature, "the manufacturing firm" does not exist; there is no homogeneous business entity to which one can attribute a single rating. There are, however, individual productive actors, each with its own specific characteristics of efficiency, management, organisation, ability to innovate. This banal observation shows the absence of a basis for apodictic assertions that inevitably contribute to views that are either caricatures (such as: Italian entrepreneurs who do not know how to do their job, dwell on old products, unable to innovate) or, conversely, miraculous (such as: entrepreneurs successful and competitive despite everything). It is not like this. Rather there are entrepreneurs who are successful and who are failures, some are good and some are not, some are lucky and others are undermined by fate: both firms in the dust, as well as firms on the altar.

Yet the recognition of an unavoidable heterogeneity of firms, excluding generalisations, leads to two important implications of, in this case, a general nature. The first is that in an open competitive environment, such as the globalised market in which manufacturing enterprises operate, there cannot be an absence of change: this is, in fact, determined by the "skimming off" of businesses exposed to competition. The second implication is that this process of selection, in absence of protection, is of a Darwinian type, and results in the elimination of the weakest and the survival of the fittest. It cannot avoid contributing to changes in the composition of the population of producers, to the overall improvement of levels of efficiency and competitiveness of the economic system. This is the process of change described above for Italian industry: lots of movement beneath the calm surface with visible consequences in the improvement of overall productivity.

In our country this change can be seen, not only within sectors, but also within size classes. Small businesses are not all the same, as neither are large firms. Within each size category there are firms that are more and less efficient. How do you tell them apart? The litmus test is whether or not they are engaged in export activities. Selling in the international market is, in fact, more difficult and expensive than producing for the domestic market; only the best companies can do this profitably. And these "best firms" can be found in all size classes. Table 2 shows, for some economic indicators, the differences between exporting firms and non-exporters. As can be seen, on average exporters are larger, more productive, pay higher wages, make more investments, and have higher profit margins than non-exporters. This superior performance is a known fact. Yet a key aspect is that the "premium" for exporters can be systematically found in each size category. Thus there is no a clear line of demarcation of competitiveness between small and large firms, but the lines of demarcation between those which are more and less competitive do run across each size class.

Table 2 - Manufacturing firms, share of exporters and differences compared to non-exporters – 2011
20140711-SCN-Tabella2-EN
*Difference in percentage points between the operating margins in relation to the added value of exporters and non-exporters.
Source: Nomisma elaborations based on data from ISTAT

It should also be noted that, similar to what was observed for sectoral stillness, there are also changes underlying the inertia related to size. Over the last decade production resources have shifted to exporters in all size categories. This is evident both with regard to the relative number of exporting firms, as to the added value they produce (Figures 1 and 2). This growth in the weight of exporters in each size class means that resources have moved towards uses that are more productive, more profitable, with higher wages, with greater investment and to larger enterprises: also in this perspective it is possible to then identify the virtuous effects of selective pressures within an environment characterised by strong heterogeneity.

Figure 1 - Exporters: percentage of total manufacturing firms (% values)
20140711-SCN-Grafico1-EN
Source: Nomisma elaborations based on data from ISTAT

Figure 2 –Exporters: share of manufacturing value added (% values)
20140711-SCN-Grafico2-EN
Source: Nomisma elaborations based on data from ISTAT

These assertions contribute to a positive, though not miraculous vision of the capacity of Italian exporting firms to adapt. How many of these firms are in fact among the 'best'? What is their weight in the Italian manufacturing system? Table 3 points out a fact that is actually common to all economies: selling abroad is a relatively rare phenomenon, because not all are able to do so, not all businesses can support the higher costs that must be faced in order to engage in international activities. In Italy, only 20 out of 100 manufacturing companies engage in exports, in Germany it is 26 out of 100, in France only 12. For Italy, this means around 88,000 manufacturing exporters out of a total of 425,000 producers. A large number in absolute terms, higher than those in  Germany (55,000) and France (26,000), but which is reduced in terms of the overall share of producers due to the extreme diffusion of entrepreneurs that characterises our country (double the number in Germany and France); for the most part, however, such firms target the domestic market. Contributing to this phenomenon is the large population of micro-businesses (less than 10 employees), which are little oriented toward, but not precluded from exporting (only 12% of them are exporters, Table 1). The group of exporters in Italy becomes large majority as soon as one crosses the threshold of 20 employees. Also, what is more important is that those 88,000 exporters are those that determine the performance of the entire manufacturing sector, producing more than 80% of value added and total turnover.

Table 3 –Manufacturing: exporting firms in major European countries, 2011
20140711-SCN-Tabella3-EN
Source: Nomisma elaborations based on data from ISTAT and Eurostat

During the last two years, this minority segment of "best" producers has been subjected to the effects of the drastic contraction in domestic demand. These firms, in fact, are most certainly exporters, but also sell a lot in the domestic market: on average, over 60% of their turnover is generated in Italy and this is as true for large as well as for small exporting firms. Therefore, their competitiveness inevitably has been undermined by the unprecedented decrease in domestic demand and the credit crunch that has ensued: Italian exporters have had to face competition from foreign companies that were not weighed down by recessions in their own economies and, above all, not penalised by a credit supply that is relatively more expensive and much more difficult to access.[2] The damage caused by the annihilation of the domestic market has hence been pervasive and was probably not just limited to the less valuable parts of the production potential: there have been closures of activity even among exporters. The manufacturing that emerges from recession, therefore, is considerably thinned out in terms of the number of operators and production intensity. It remains to be seen whether and to what extent the process of creative destruction, caused by the tough selection, will end up with a positive balance in terms of overall efficiency and growth capacity of the industrial system. There is a high risk that this will not happen if the financing constraints persist and fail to allow an adequate expansion of the best firms and new initiatives capable of greater growth in the future. Also for this reason, in order to safeguard the manufacturing capacity of the Italian economy, it is imperative that a recovery worthy of the name takes off as soon as possible.

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[1] The Report of the Bank of Italy, taking into account the first decade of the new millennium (1999-2011), emphasised that the aggregate growth of productivity of the entire economy was in large part due to the processes of reallocating resources toward the most efficient companies within the same sector, while the effects of intersectoral reallocations were much less significant. For an analysis of the characteristics of the Italian industrial adjustment, see also the analyses contained in S. De Nardis (ed.), “Imprese italiane nella competizione internazionale”, FrancoAngeli, 2010 and I. Cipolletta and S. De Nardis, “Italy in the 2000s: Little growth, much restructuring”, Review of Economic Conditions in Italy,  2012.

[2]On several occasions, the notes of the Scenerio in Nomisma’s newsletters have focused on the connection between the contraction of the domestic market, export capacity and productive potential, see. the Scenario of the newsletter of November 29, 2013 "New Italian normality" and that on 6 March 2014 "Internal Devaluation". On this aspect, also see “L’eredità della crisi”, in lavoce.info, 25 January 2013. The existence of a link, in the last crisis, between falling domestic demand and exports is analyzed da M. Bugamelli, E. Gaiotti e E. Viviano (2014), “Domestic and Foreign Sales in Italy During the Global Crisis and Before: Complements or Substitutes”, paper presented at the conference of the Italian Trade Study Group organised by Crenos and Fondazione Masi in Cagliari, 3-4 July 2014.       

 

Published in Scenario
Wednesday, 11 June 2014 00:00

11 June 2014 - Intensive exporters

Sergio De Nardis, Chief Economist 
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Federico Fontolan, Economist 
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How are Italian exports going? It is a known fact that net exports (exports minus imports) were the only component of spending that provided a contribution in support of GDP during the recession. This was also possible due to better Italian sales performance in destination markets than in past years. The boost came not so much from the expansion of the menu of products-destinations that characterise Italian exports, as from the substantial intensification of the export efforts for the same products exported and destinations served. While on the first front (extension), performance has been negative compared to the partners, on the second front (intensity), the results were much better.

The Bank of Italy report shows that over the last four years Italian exports of goods at constant prices have grown at a higher rate (+22.9% between 2009 and 2013) than export markets (+20.1%), leading over time to a gain in the volume shares of Italian goods. Our country’s markets (comprised 40% of economies in the euro area), however, have grown less than world trade (+28%), so that the Italian share in the commensurate volume of total international trade has suffered an erosion (Figure 1).

Figure 1 –Italy: exports,markets andworld trade (2009=100)
20140611-SC-Grafico1-EN
Source: Nomisma elaborations based on data from Bank of Italy

Therefore, net of a negative market effect (Italy has sold more in locations where economies grew less), in recent years the trend in Italian exports has been generally positive, helping to provide partial support to GDP during the last recession. While the markets open to our products seem to have been fully exploited, competitiveness has improved, as shown by the actual performance of foreign sales. Certainly, it would have been possible to do more, through increased disengagement from Europe and greater focus on markets that are farther away and more dynamic. But the characteristics of size and in particular the governance of many of our exporting companies, as well as the attraction effect exerted from being fully integrated in the euro area (indeed, an almost domestic market) act as factors conditioning the geography of trade that are not easily overcome in a limited period of time.

If these are the essential features of the overall performance of Italian exports in recent years, one aspect to investigate concerns the performance of Italy compared to the economies with which it shares the single currency and with respect to which it needs to undertake a process of competitive rebalancing. Figure 2 shows the ratio between Italian exports and German exports and between Italian exports and the exports of the rest of the Euro area (2000=100). Exports are measured in terms of volume, adopting as deflators the values in current euros of the producer prices of industrial products in foreign markets.[1] As can be seen, the heavy loss of share compared to the German economy, ongoing since the launch of the euro, came to a halt in 2010. Starting from that year, Italian exports have grown in line with those from Germany. This obviously implies that in relation to world trade, the export shares of the two countries have moved in the same direction since 2010. This is a result that should be interpreted positively, given that the benchmark is comprised of super-competitive firms, against which Italian exporters had to compete in order to stop the loss in position.

Compared to the other euro countries, since the beginning of the single currency the performance of our country is characterised by a better staying capacity. This confirms that the Italian crisis of market share of the last decade has been mainly with regard to Germany, or rather the country that has gained in overall competitiveness compared to the euro partners. With reference to the latest period, we see that even in this case, after a decrease between 2008 and 2009, Italy's exports have tended to grow in line with those of the other euro partners.

Figure 2 –Ratio between Italian exports in terms of volume and German and the other euro countries’ exports (2000=100)
20140611-SC-Grafico2-EN
Source: Nomisma elaborations based on data from Eurostat

However, among these countries are economies that show very different performances, such as France, which compared to Italy has improved its position since the beginning of the euro, and the so-called periphery (Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland) which, along with Italy, are engaged in even more severe rebalancing processes. How can we position our country in relation to their adjustment efforts? Figure 3 shows a comparison involving the most important peripheral economy in terms of export dimensions: Spain, presented as an example of having recently started to show the fruits of an improved competitiveness in terms of unit costs of production. And, in fact, the figure shows how the ratio between Spanish and German exports was higher than that  between Italian and German exports and, consequently, how the foreign sales of Iberian goods have increased more than Italian exports since the "first" recession in 2009--a trend that has accelerated in the past year.

Figure 3 –Ratio between Spanish and German/Italian exports(2000=100)
20140611-SC-Grafico3-EN
Source: Nomisma elaborations based on data from Eurostat

An examination of the composition of exports by product and destination of the economies under consideration allows shedding more light on the factors that underlie the differences in performance. Generally, exports vary as a result of changes in their so-called extensive and intensive factors. The extensive factor relates to the fact that exports may grow because their extension increases in terms of the number of products exported and markets reached with those products. The intensive factor refers rather to the fact that exports may grow because their intensity rises, meaning increasing the value of exports for the same product-destination.[2]

Table 1 shows the results of the exercise of breaking down the exports in current euros of the four countries examined. The first line confirms what has been shown previously for the data on volume: Italian exports have increased in value between 2010 and 2013, like those of Germany, more than those of France, less than those of Spain. Underlying this performance for Italy is a modest rise in the extensive factor (second line), lower than that of all other partners, and a strong growth in the intensive factor, or exports per product-destination combination (bottom row). The increase in the intensity of Italian exports substantially exceeds the increases for the same factor experienced by the other economies. Thus, the trend in Italian exports is characterised by a remarkable intensity of effort, which has offset the limited progress achieved in terms of expansion of product-destinations.

Table 1 - Exports in terms of value: breakdown of the changes in the extensive and intensive factors between 2010-2013 (logarithmic variations x 100)
20140611-SC-Tabella1-EN
1Number of effective product-destination combinations.
2 Ratio between the number of actual product-destination combinations and the maximum number of possible product-destination combinations.
3Ratio between the value of exports and the number of actual product-destination combinations.
Source: Nomisma elaborations based on data from Eurostat

These dynamics have resulted in Italy’s performance being the opposite of that exhibited by its European partners regarding the two factors taken into consideration: relative loss regarding extension, substantial gain with respect to intensity (Figure 4). This evidence appears to some extent to be consistent with that derived from the aggregate data of a negative market effect (exporters have not moved on towards new, more dynamic destinations) and a positive product / competitiveness effect (Italian goods have gained shares in their traditional markets).

Figure 4 - Export performance of Italy compared to the euro partners in terms of extensive and intensive factors (difference between logarithmic variations in %, 2010-13)
20140611-SC-Grafico4-EN
Source: Nomisma elaborations based on data from Eurostat

The breakdown in Table 1 also allows showing the characteristics, different from those in Italy, of the increase in Spanish exports. Underlying this increase is a compression of the intensive factor which is offset by a more than proportional expansion of the extensive factor. In other words, between 2010 and 2013, Spain's exports have increased more than those of its European partners only because the Iberian economy was able to significantly increase the number of product-destination combinations to which it sends its exports. By further breaking down the extensive factor (third, fourth and fifth rows of Table 1), it is possible to show the elements that were at the basis of this strong increase. It is not attributable to components that are individually considered, such as the number of products sold abroad (decreased, as in other economies) and the number of destinations (increased more than for other countries, but only to a limited extent). What has driven the growth of the extensive factor of Spanish exports has been a marked increase in density, or the effect of having pushed the penetration of Iberian products in a substantially larger number of markets in the context of product-destinations available for Spain.[3]

In a nutshell, at the basis of the increase in Italian exports between 2010 and 2013, there was a rise in the volume of exports of the same products to the same destinations (product-destination combinations almost unchanged), while for Spain the increase was due to the ability to find new markets for the same products exported in 2010.

To which elements can the different behaviours of Italian and Spanish exports be attributed? Without information on the variations in the number of exporting firms, at this level of analysis it is only possible to refer to further investigation.[4] One explanation may perhaps be found in the different experiences in the recovery of competitiveness that took place in these economies during the period examined. The dynamics of export prices in the two countries (which between 2010 and 2013 rose less in Italy than in Spain) and unit labor costs (which increased more in Italy than in Spain) seem to indicate that the average profitability of export activities has improved more in the Iberian economy than in the Italian economy. In the Spanish case, this could have been the result of an increase in the profitability of sales of products that were also exported to destinations that previously were not reached because they were too distant and therefore expensive, thus leading to a substantial increase in the extension of exports. In the Italian case, the insufficient rise in profitability of exports would, however, be accompanied by modest changes in the extensive factor and an increase in the intensity of the effort of selling products in locations that were already initially (in 2010) profitable.

If the net result of the two "strategies" seems to be rewarding Spain (whose sales abroad have increased more than Italy’s), it is also necessary to keep in mind the differing costs of the competitive imbalances to be corrected in the two economies. According to recent estimates, which take into account the different distributions of firms in terms of efficiency levels in the euro countries,[5] the depreciation of the real Spanish exchange rate that would be necessary to eliminate the competitive gap would be 2.5-4 times higher than that required by Italy. Considering that the bulk of the adjustment must be made through an internal devaluation (and, therefore, a worsening of the labour market), the difference in the size of the required competitive rebalancing is reflected in the extent of deterioration in the unemployment rate: in Spain, since the beginning of the crisis, the share of the unemployed labour force has increased three times as much as in Italy. Within this perspective, the better performance of exports from Spain is just the other side of the worsening trend in its labour market.

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[1] The deflation of foreign trade data in order to obtain quantity indices is carried out by national statistical offices using average unit values (AUV). The latter do not correspond, however, to the true price indices, reflecting the change in the composition of the basket of goods exported / imported. The methods of formulation of the AUV are also influenced by the criteria for treatment of extreme data. For this reason we have chosen to adopt a true price index as a deflator of the exports of the euro countries. It should be recalled that it has been a number of years since ISTAT has abandoned the reference to the AUV in calculating the deflator of exports of goods relating to national accounts, instead relying on the prices of industrial products in foreign markets, namely the price indicator that is being used here.

[2] These assessments were made by defining products at the highest level of disaggregation, using the 8 digits of the Combined Nomenclature. Under this classification, there are approximately 19,000 8-digit items. There are about 8,400 8-digit products exported by each of the four European countries under consideration. All exports that present positive values, however small, in the destination countries are regarded as exports that are valid In the calculation of the intensive and extensive factors.

[3] The density is given by the ratio between the number of actual product-destination combinations (observed extensive factor) and the maximum number of possible product-destination combinations (theoretical extensive factor). For example, a country that exports 3 products and has 3 target markets has an theoretical extensive factor of 9 product-destinations; this combination is realised if the country exports all of its products to all destinations. The actual extensive factor, however, with be less than the theoretical extensive factor because, as a rule, a country does not export all of its products to all of its destinations.

[4] A further limitation stems from the fact that the reasoning is based on average values. The latter, though, lose their explanatory capability in the presence of very asymmetric distributions such as those of the exporting companies and products exported in various locations (seehttp://www.nomisma.it/index.php/it/newsletter/scenario/item/375-6-marzo-2014-svalutazione-interna).

[5] Cfr. Di Mauro F. and F. Pappadà (2014), “Euro area external imbalances and the burden of adjustment”, ECB working paper 1681.  

Published in Scenario

Milan, 2nd April 2014 - With nearly €1.6 billion worth of wine exports in 2013, the Veneto region has not only confirmed its role as the leading Italian region in terms of cross-border sales, but it has increased the distance from its closest competitor – the Piedmont region – which accounts for €969 million of export sales. Thanks to the peculiar moment that Prosecco is currently experiencing, between 2012 and 2013 Veneto wine exports grew by 10%, a trend well above the national average (7%). To be fair, it must be said that, in percentage terms, there are also those which have performed better. Among these there are the wines of Abruzzo and Lombardy regions (both +12 %), while among the other major wine-producing regions, exports from the Emilia Romagna region rose by +10% (reaching an all-time high of €388 million), from Piedmont +9%, from Tuscany +6% and Trentino-South Tyrol +6% (the latter is erroneously considered a "unified" region by customs code, despite the enormous differences not only in identity, but particularly in viticulture).

Yet there are also negative signs. The most striking decline among the main producing regions concerned Apulian wines, which - after having experienced a decade of steady growth with exports nearly doubling between 2003 and 2012 – saw its exports drop by 21%, thus reducing the value of its exports to less than €100 million (specifically €96 million compared to €122 million in the previous year).

The conditions in Friuli and Sicily regions are stable and stationary. The exports of Friulian wines have remained around €76 million for several years, while Sicilian wines have failed to break through the threshold of €100 million, remaining by far at around €99 million. Maybe this represents a small extent, given the significant potential expressed by Sicilian viticulture and especially because of the reputation that this area holds in the perception of distributors and consumers around the world.

This also becomes evident in the results of the Wine Trend World of Wine Monitor, a survey of international operators that - among other issues - measures the brand recognition of European wine regions. The WM survey has pointed out the main production areas of bestselling wines and 6 are Italian regions. Among these, the Veneto region stands out once again - it seems to have gained a sort of leadership within international wine exports – followed in order by Tuscany, Sicily, Piedmont, Apulia, and South Tyrol.

20140404-CS EN-Tabella2-1

In the overall regional context concerning exports of PDO wines, Tuscan reds have reigned supreme with more than €500 million in international sales in 2013. Among the whites, it is purely a matter of the North-East, with Prosecco prevailing among the sparkling wines.

PDO and PGI wines constitute more than 80% of Italian wine exports. Although the customs classification does not allow going into the details of all of the denominations, it may be possible to derive some insights and interesting trends concerning developments in 2013 from those data that are available.

Beginning with PDO sparkling wines, in 2013 exports of Asti reached more than €173 million, a value 16% higher compared to the previous year. This increase was primarily a result of the strong recovery of sales in Russia, a market that accounts for 20% of wine exports. After a standstill in 2012 caused by the sudden "reorganization" of importers’ licenses, the Russian market for Asti registered an increase of 83%. We should not neglect to mention the strong appreciation of Asti by consumers in Latvia (fourth target market with €14 million of exports) and in the Ukraine where exports increased 19% and 41%, respectively, between 2012 and 2013.

An even higher growth trend characterized the "macro category" of other PDO sparkling wines, also including Prosecco, the main driver of the +26% increase in export value which has led this category to exceed €392 million of exports in 2013 (signifying an increase of as much as 130% over the value of three years earlier!).

Within the area of PDO still wines, Tuscan reds hold the record in international sales, accounting for more than €500 million of exports in 2013. Compared to the previous year, this value has increased by 5%, whereas it is 25% higher than in 2010. More than one-third of this export volume ends up in the United States.

However, even in this case the highest rate of growth was associated with another category of PDO red wines, in particular those from the Piedmont region which experienced a rise in exports of over 17% between 2012 and 2013. For these wines, the United States is again the largest market, accounting for about 26% of exports, while the highest percentage increase was registered by the Swiss market (+54%), with exports of these wines expanding from €10 million to €16 million between 2012 and 2013.

20140404-CS EN-Tabella2-2

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Published in Comunicati Stampa

A year and a half after the adoption of the new EU regulation, Nomisma’s Wine Monitor once again presents data on organic wine. Expansion in cultivated surface areas (+81% from 2003 to 2012), excellent export performances, consumption growth.

A year and a half after the adoption of the EU regulation N. 203/2012, organic wine is in great “fermentation”. In 2012 (latest data available) 8% of the Italian vineyard area was organic (compared to the world average of 4%). In terms of absolute value, Italy ranks third in Europe: with just over 57 thousand hectares of organic vineyards (+8.6% compared to 2011 and +81% compared to 2003), Italy is only overtaken by Spain (81 thousand hectares, +394% compared to 2003) and France (65 thousand hectares, +299%). At the regional level, Sicily is the leader (16,144 hectares), followed by Puglia (10,173 hectares) and Tuscany (5,887 hectares).

The sales of organic wine are also rising: Large-scale retail indicates a +4% increase in volume over 2012 (compared to a -6.5% decline for the wine category as a whole – Source: IRI- www.iriworldwide.it). But since large retailers are not the preferred sales channel for BIO wines, the real data that reveals the interest in organic wine is the penetration rate.

Wine Trend Italy, the Nomisma Wine Monitor survey on Italian consumers, shows that in 2013 11.6% of Italians have consumed organic wine on at least one occasion(the previous survey reported that, in 2012, the penetration rate was of about 2%). In particular, 6.4% had purchased a bottle of certified organic wine in shops and 5.2% had consumed organic wine in restaurants and wine bars.

ITALY - the number of consumers of certified organic wine is increasing
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Source: Wine Trend Italy Survey of Nomisma Wine Monitor.

The perception of the quality of organic wine compared to conventional wine

The new regulation on organic wine has contributed to achieving another important result: increasing the market potential of this segment.

According to the survey, 43% of consumers believe that certified organic wine has superior quality compared to conventional wine. This percentage rises to 59% among buyers of organic wine and to 49% among those who have consumed organic wine in wine bars/cafés/restaurants. These results not only show that consumers have a strong appreciation for the quality of organic wine, but also that those who do not consume it have a very positive perception.

What are the growth paths for organic wine in the domestic market?

Over the next few years, there are many directions that can be taken in order to seize the opportunities for organic wine in the Italian market. On the one hand, it is necessary to implement communication strategies that are able to valorise the virtues of organic wine in a simple way, while on the other hand it is necessary to follow an approach of exerting greater control over large-scale distribution and specialty retail stores in order to facilitate the initial purchase and to overcome potential barriers to access for consumers. 

The figures from the Wine Trend Italy survey suggest this particular path. In fact, according to the survey, 18.8% of the consumers who drank organic wines outside their homes at least once in 2013 declared that even though organic wines are not on shelves in the stores they usually shop in, they would be interested in buying them. But the greatest opportunity for expanding demand comes from current non-consumers (88.4% of the total population): 10% of current non-consumers stated that they would be willing to buy organic wines if the items were present in the sales outlets frequented.

20140404-Figura2-CS-EN
Source: Wine Trend Italy Survey of Nomisma Wine Monitor.

Organic wine in the United States

Wine is the Italian agri-food product that is most exported in the world (€5 billion in 2013, up +7.3% compared to 2012). One of the most important destination markets for Italian wine is the United States, where the total value of wine imports from Italy reached € 1.1 billion and to which even organic wines made their contribution.

In 2013, US imports of organic wine accounted for €193 million, a figure that represents 5.2% of the US bottled wine imports. Of these imports, 46.1% were red wines, 32.7% white wines and the remaining 21.2% sparkling wines.

20140404-Tabella1-CS-EN
Source: Nomisma Wine Monitor.

The analysis shows that after France (€65 million), Italy (€56 million) was the most important country of origin of organic wines imported into the United States. In other words, 33.7% of the value of US organic wine imports is attributed to French wines, while Italy’s share is somewhat lower, 29.3%. Among the other competitors, though with far smaller market shares, are New Zealand (7.6%) and Spain (7.5%). Finally, just over a fifth of imports (21.9%) was divided between some thirty other countries.

Within individual product categories, France  clearly dominates the segment of red wines(35.9% of imports in terms of value), which is also the most economically significant (€88.8 million). Also within this segment, Italy is the only real competitor to the French, accounting for 26.2% of US imports of organic wine (USA imports €€23 million of organic Italian red wine). In the case of white wines, Italy is the leader in US imports (30.6%), ahead of New Zealand (21.7%) and France (17.5%).

The competition between France and Italy is particularly strong within the category of sparkling wines (also including spumanti wines), where 54% of US organic wine imports come from France and 34.2% from Italy. The two countries together account for 88.2% of the imports, leaving marginal shares to few other producing countries.

Looking ahead, the development opportunities for overseas sales of organic wines are very positive. In the United States the interest in products obtained through sustainable methods, and organic methods in particular, is growing and Italian organic wines have all that it takes to strengthen their presence in this country.

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Edoardo Caprino Phone. +39 339 5933457 – This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
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Published in Comunicati Stampa

Ad un anno e mezzo dall’applicazione del nuovo regolamento comunitario, Wine Monitor Nomisma torna a presentare i numeri sul vino biologico. Crescita delle superfici investite (+81% tra il 2003 e il 2012), ottime performance nell’export, crescita dei consumi.

Bologna 01-04-2014 – Ad un anno e mezzo dall’applicazione del nuovo regolamento comunitario, il vino biologico è in grande “fermento”. In Italia, nel 2012 (ultimo dato disponibile), l’8% degli ettari vitati è biologico (a fronte di una media mondiale del 4%); in valore assoluto l’Italia è al terzo posto in Europa: con poco più 57mila ettari vitati bio (+8,6% rispetto al 2011 e +81% rispetto al 2003), l’Italia è superata solo da Spagna (81 mila ettari, +394% rispetto al 2003) e Francia (65 mila ettari, +299%). A livello regionale guidano Sicilia (16.144 ettari), Puglia (10.173 ettari) e Toscana (5.887 ettari).
Anche le vendite di vino bio crescono: la GDO segna +4% a volume rispetto al 2012 (a fronte di -6,5% per il totale della categoria vino - fonte: IRI - www.iriworldwide.it). Ma la GDO non è il canale privilegiato per il bio e quindi il vero dato che rivela l’interesse per il vino bio è il tasso di penetrazione.
Wine Trend Italia, la survey di Wine Monitor Nomisma sul consumatore italiano, indica che nel 2013 l’11,6% degli italiani ha consumato vino bio in almeno in un’occasione (la precedente indagine Wine Monitor aveva segnalato che nel 2012 il tasso di penetrazione era pari al 2%). In particolare, il 6,4% ha acquistato una bottiglia di vino bio certificato nei negozi e il 5,2% lo ha consumato fuori casa in ristoranti ed enoteche.

In crescita il numero di consumatori di vino bio certificato
20140402-CS-Figura1
Fonte: Survey Wine Trend Italia di Wine Monitor Nomisma.

La percezione sulla qualità del vino bio rispetto al vino convenzionale
La nuova normativa sul vino bio ha contribuito inoltre a cogliere un altro importante risultato, incrementando il potenziale di mercato di questo segmento.
Il 43% dei consumatori ritiene che il vino biologico certificato abbia qualità superiori rispetto agli altri vini convenzionali. Questa percentuale sale al 59% tra gli acquirenti di vino bio e al 49% tra chi ha consumato vino bio in enoteche/bar/ristoranti. Questo risultato evidenzia, non solo un grande apprezzamento della qualità del vino bio tra i consumatori, ma anche una percezione estremamente positiva tra chi non lo consuma.

Quali percorsi di crescita per il vino bio nel mercato interno?
Per i prossimi anni le strade per cogliere le opportunità del vino bio nel mercato italiano sono tante. Da un lato, occorre implementare strategie di comunicazione che sappiano in modo semplice valorizzare le virtù del vino bio e dall’altro occorre proseguire la strada del maggior presidio nella GDO e nei pdv specializzati per favorire il primo acquisto e superare le potenziali barriere d’accesso per il consumatore.
I numeri della Survey Wine Trend Italia di Wine Monitor suggeriscono proprio questa strada. Il 18,8% dei consumatori, che nel 2013 hanno bevuto in almeno un’ occasione vini bio fuori casa, dichiara che, pur non essendo presenti i vini bio negli assortimenti dei negozi abitualmente frequentati, sarebbero interessati ad acquistarli. Ma le maggiori opportunità di allargamento della domanda arrivano proprio dagli attuali non consumatori (88,4% del totale): il 10% degli attuali non consumatori si dichiara disposto ad acquistare vini bio qualora le referenze fossero presenti nei punti vendita frequentati.

20140402-CS-Figura2
Fonte: Survey Wine Trend Italia di Wine Monitor Nomisma.

 

Il vino biologico negli Stati Uniti
Il vino è il prodotto agroalimentare italiano più esportato nel mondo (5 miliardi di euro di export nel 2013, +7,3% rispetto al 2012). Uno dei più importanti mercati di destinazione del vino italiano sono gli Stati Uniti, dove l’import totale di vino dall’Italia ha raggiunto 1,1 miliardi di euro e dove rispetto a tale valore anche il vino biologico ha dato il suo contributo.
Nel 2013 gli Stati Uniti hanno importato vino biologico per complessivi 193 milioni di euro, un valore che rappresenta il 5,2% delle importazioni di vino imbottigliato degli Stati Uniti. Il 46,1% delle importazioni afferisce a vini rossi; un ulteriore 32,7% a quelli bianchi ed il restante 21,2% ai vini frizzanti.

20140402-CS-Tabella2-1
Fonte: Wine Monitor Nomisma.

L’analisi condotta per area geografica evidenzia come l’Italia (56 milioni di euro di vino bio) sia stata, dopo la Francia (65 milioni di euro), il più importante paese di provenienza dei vini biologici importati dagli Stati Uniti. In altri termini, il 33,7% dell’import in valore è riconducibile a vini francesi mentre la quota dell’Italia è di poco inferiore, pari al 29,3%. Tra gli altri competitors si segnalano, con quote molto più contenute, anche la Nuova Zelanda (7,6%) e la Spagna (7,5%). Infine poco più di un quinto delle importazioni (21,9%) si è ripartito tra un’altra trentina di paesi.

All’interno delle singole categorie di prodotto la Francia presidia saldamente (35,9% dell’import a valore) il segmento dei vini rossi, che è anche quello economicamente più rilevante (88,8 milioni di euro). Anche in questo segmento l’Italia è l’unico vero competitor del paese transalpino con il 26,2% dell’import di vino bio (gli USA importano 23 milioni di euro di vino rosso bio dall’Italia). Nel caso dei vini bianchi è invece il nostro paese a detenere la leadership delle importazioni (30,6%), davanti a Nuova Zelanda (21,7%) e Francia (17,5%).
La competizione tra Francia e Italia è particolarmente viva nella categoria dei vini frizzanti (che comprendono anche gli spumanti) dove il 54% dell’import di vino bio è riconducibile a vini francesi ed il 34,2% a quelli italiani. Congiuntamente i due paesi detengono l’88,2% delle importazioni, lasciando a pochi altri produttori le quote residuali dei flussi diretti verso gli Stati Uniti.
In prospettiva, le opportunità di sviluppo delle vendite oltreoceano di vini biologici sono molto positive. Negli Stati Uniti l’interesse nei confronti delle produzioni ottenute con metodi sostenibili, e di quelle biologiche in particolare, è in continua crescita e i vini italiani biologici hanno tutte le carte in regola per rafforzare la propria presenza in questo paese.

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Published in Comunicati Stampa

Milano, 2 aprile 2014 - Con quasi 1,6 miliardi di euro di vino esportato nel 2013, il Veneto non solo si conferma la prima regione d’Italia per vendite oltre frontiera, ma allunga le distanze dal diretto inseguitore – il Piemonte – che segue con 969 milioni di euro. Grazie anche al momento magico che sta vivendo il Prosecco, l’export di vino veneto è cresciuto del 10% tra il 2012 e il 2013, una dinamica ben al di sopra della media nazionale (7%). Ad onor del vero va detto che, in termini percentuali, c’è anche chi ha fatto meglio. Tra questi, i vini dell’Abruzzo e della Lombardia (+12% entrambi), mentre per quanto riguarda i vini delle altre grandi regioni produttrici si registra un +10% dell’Emilia Romagna (giunta al massimo storico dei 388 milioni di euro), un +9% del Piemonte, un +6% della Toscana e del Trentino Alto Adige (erroneamente considerato come “unica” regione dai codici doganali, a dispetto delle enormi diversità non solo identitarie ma soprattutto vinicole).

Non mancano anche i segni meno. Il calo più eclatante – sempre nell’ambito delle principali regioni produttrici - riguarda i vini della Puglia che – dopo un decennio di crescita ininterrotta e che ha visto l’export praticamente raddoppiare tra il 2003 e il 2012 – hanno subito un calo del 21%, retrocedendo così a meno di 100 milioni di euro di vino esportato (esattamente 96 milioni contro i 122 milioni dell’anno precedente).

Stabili e stazionarie le condizioni di Friuli e Sicilia. L’export di vini friulani viaggia ormai da diversi anni attorno ai 76 milioni di euro, mentre quello siciliano non riesce ad infrangere la barriera dei 100 milioni, stazionando da tempo attorno ai 99 milioni di euro. Forse un po’ poco, alla luce delle rilevanti potenzialità che la vitivinicoltura siciliana esprime e soprattutto della notorietà che questo territorio detiene nella percezione dei distributori e dei consumatori di tutto il mondo.

Questo emerge anche dai risultati della Wine Trend World di Wine Monitor, survey sugli operatori internazionali, che misura, tra le altre cose, la brand awareness dei territori vinicoli europei. L’indagine WM ha messo in luce le principali zone di produzione di vini di successo: ben 6 regioni sono italiane. Tra queste primeggia ancora una volta il Veneto – che sembra aver ormai conquistato una sorta di leadership nel panorama dell’export enologico internazionale – seguito nell’ordine da Toscana, Sicilia, Piemonte, Alto Adige e Puglia.

Le variazioni di breve e lungo periodo nell'export regionale di vino (valori)
20140402-CS-Tabella1
Fonte: WineMonitor su dati Istat

A livello generale in ambito regionale per quanto concerne l’export tra i dop i rossi toscani la fanno da padrone con oltre 500 milioni di euro di vendite oltre frontiera nel 2013. Tra i bianchi è una questione prettamente del nord-est, tra gli spumanti prevale il prosecco.

Oltre l’80% dell’export di vino italiano è costituito da vini Dop e Igp. Sebbene la classificazione doganale non permetta di scendere nel dettaglio di tutte le denominazioni, da quelle esistenti è comunque possibile desumere spunti e tendenze interessanti su quanto accaduto nel 2013.

Iniziando dagli spumanti Dop, nel 2013 l’Asti ha raggiunto un export di oltre 173 milioni di euro, un valore in crescita del 16% rispetto all’anno prima. Tale incremento deriva innanzitutto dal forte recupero delle vendite in Russia, un mercato che pesa per il 20% sull’export di tale vino e che dopo la battuta d’arresto del 2012 determinata dalla repentina “riorganizzazione” delle licenze degli importatori, ha messo a segno un aumento dell’83%. Senza tralasciare l’apprezzamento che l’Asti suscita nei consumatori della Lettonia (quarto mercato di destinazione con 14 milioni di euro di esportazioni) e dell’Ucraina, dove l’export è aumentato rispettivamente del 19% e 41% tra il 2012 e il 2013.

Una dinamica di crescita ancora più elevata ha interessato la “macro categoria” degli altri spumanti Dop, al cui interno figura anche il Prosecco, il principale artefice di quel +26% di valore dell’export che ha portato tale categoria a superare i 392 milioni di euro di esportazioni nel 2013 (un valore che se raffrontato ad appena tre anni prima denota un aumento di ben il 130%!).

Nell’ambito dei vini fermi Dop, sono i Rossi della Toscana a detenere il primato delle vendite oltre frontiera, con oltre 500 milioni di export messi a segno nel 2013. Rispetto all’anno precedente, si tratta di un valore in crescita del 5% che diventa pari al 25% se raffrontato con il 2010. Oltre un terzo di questo export finisce negli Stati Uniti.

Tuttavia, anche in questo caso, la percentuale di crescita più elevata spetta ad un’altra categoria di rossi Dop e cioè a quelli piemontesi che tra il 2012 e il 2013 hanno aumentato l’export di oltre il 17%. Per questi vini sono nuovamente gli Stati Uniti il principale mercato di sbocco, assorbendo circa il 26% delle relative esportazioni, mentre l’aumento più rilevante in termini percentuali è stato registrato dalla Svizzera (+54%), dove l’export – sempre tra il 2012 e il 2013 - è passato da 10 a 16 milioni di euro.

L'export di vini Dop (2013 e variazione anni precedenti, milioni di euro)
20140402-CS-Tabella2
Fonte: Wine Monitor

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Per informazioni:
Ufficio Stampa Nomisma – Wine Monitor www.winemonitor.it
Edoardo Caprino Tel. 339 5933457 – This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Giulia Fabbri Tel. 345 6156164 – This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

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